They Gutted Weather Warnings Before the Flood
And Counting on Us Not to Notice
As families continue searching for missing loved ones in Texas, Tropical Storm Chantal is making landfall in South Carolina.¹ The same understaffed weather service that failed to predict the full scope of Texas flooding is now responsible for keeping the entire Eastern seaboard safe during what forecasters predict will be an "above-normal" hurricane season.²
At least 51 people are confirmed dead from flash floods that swept through Texas Hill Country in the pre-dawn hours of July 4th—with search and rescue operations still ongoing.³ Weather warnings were issued, yet they drastically underestimated the threat.⁴ Officials forecast 4-6 inches of rain. Instead, 15+ inches fell in just hours—actual rainfall was 150-275% more than predicted—creating a wall of water that surged down the Guadalupe River while families slept.⁵ Children at summer camps. Elderly residents in RV parks. Families celebrating the holiday weekend.
Here's the timeline that reveals the betrayal: Just six months before this disaster, the Department of Government Efficiency eliminated 600 meteorologists and weather forecasters from the National Weather Service and NOAA.⁶ The Austin-San Antonio weather office responsible for the failed forecast lost key personnel to "early retirement incentives."⁷ Nearly half of all weather service offices now operate with dangerous staffing shortages.⁸
And I Say, Oh HELL, No
These families deserved accurate warnings that matched the actual threat. The meteorologists and forecasters who issued those warnings are dedicated professionals doing heroic work with deliberately weakened resources—working punishing schedules, covering multiple offices, trying to protect lives with skeleton crews and reduced data.⁹
The responsibility lies with Trump and his administration who eliminated 600 of their colleagues six months before the deadliest weather season in years.
This isn't about weather prediction being imperfect—it's about systematically weakening the systems that keep families alive. When you eliminate the people whose job is to provide accurate warnings, then those warnings fail catastrophically, that's not coincidence. That's consequence.
This is the authoritarian playbook: destroy the institution, then blame the institution when it fails.
Here's What They Don't Want Us to Focus On
While families grieve and exhausted meteorologists work around the clock with inadequate resources, specific officials are deflecting blame onto the weather service for "inaccurate forecasts." Texas Emergency Management Chief W. Nim Kidd told reporters the forecast "did not predict the amount of rain that we saw."¹⁰ Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said the storm "dumped more rain than what was forecasted."¹¹ Governor Greg Abbott, standing alongside DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, allowed Noem to dismiss the warning failures as problems with "ancient" technology that Trump is working to "upgrade."¹² They want us to blame the forecasters, not the politicians who weakened their capacity to do the job.
Meanwhile, President Trump—whose administration eliminated 600 weather professionals just months before this disaster—expressed sympathy and pledged federal aid. "Melania and I are praying for all the families impacted by this horrible tragedy," Trump posted on Truth Social.¹³
The hypocrisy is staggering. Trump's administration weakened the very systems designed to prevent such tragedies, then offers prayers and aid when those systems fail catastrophically. Abbott, who just three weeks ago expressed "full confidence" that Texas could handle disasters without federal assistance, now requests federal aid for the very disaster that federal cuts helped create.¹⁴
The Deliberate Sequence
January 2025: Trump's DOGE eliminates 600 NOAA staff as "government efficiency"
Spring 2025: Weather offices can't operate 24/7 anymore¹⁵
June 2025: Austin-San Antonio office loses key meteorologists
July 4, 2025: Forecast underestimates rainfall, dozens die
July 5, 2025: Kidd, Rice, and Abbott (with Noem) blame the weather service
July 6, 2025: Trump offers "prayers"; Abbott requests federal aid, even though 3 weeks ago blessed Trump's plan to move FEMA to the states
Eight weather offices nationwide can no longer operate around the clock.¹⁶ Critical weather balloon sites that provide essential atmospheric data have been shut down.¹⁷ The remaining meteorologists are working dangerous schedules trying to cover for eliminated colleagues. As one former weather service director warned: "You can only ask people to work 80 hours or 120 hours a week for so long. They may be so bleary-eyed, they can't identify what's going on on the radar."¹⁸
Texas isn't an isolated incident—it's a preview of what happens when you deliberately weaken life-saving infrastructure right before you need it most.
What We Deserve
Every American deserves weather warnings that accurately reflect actual threats—whether you're in Texas Hill Country, on the Carolina coast, or anywhere extreme weather strikes. You deserve meteorologists who aren't working dangerous schedules because their colleagues got eliminated for political points. You deserve forecasting systems with complete data, not systems missing critical information because monitoring stations were closed to save money.
We deserve leaders who understand that weather forecasting isn't government waste—it's life-saving infrastructure that protects families, farmers, and entire communities. We deserve the truth about what happened and why, not officials gaslighting about "ancient systems" while search and rescue operations continue.
And What We Got
We got deliberate cuts to the systems that protect American lives, marketed as "efficiency." We got overworked forecasters trying to predict deadly weather with reduced data and exhausted staff. We got warnings that underestimated the threat during a critical overnight emergency when every minute mattered.
We got heroic meteorologists blamed for failures created by the politicians who weakened their resources. We got families swept away because Trump's administration chose budget cuts over public safety. We got children who died at summer camps because Trump decided weather forecasting was wasteful spending.
We got a preview of what happens when you treat life-saving infrastructure as expendable. And the human cost continues to unfold.
Watch for What's Next
FEMA is next. Just like NOAA, FEMA is also being gutted. Texas will need help, and it will not be there to fully meet the need. Both Trump and Abbott will not own their statements. Trump announced, "We want to bring it down to the state level" while disaster relief funds would be "distributed directly from the White House."¹⁹ Abbott's office expressed "full confidence that the Texas Division of Emergency Management will be able to swiftly take action when disaster strikes"—just three weeks ago, then immediately requested federal aid when this disaster hit.²⁰ As Texas recovers from this flood, watch for this exact talking point: "FEMA's response was inadequate." They'll use this Texas disaster—caused by gutting the weather service—to attack another gutted American institution: FEMA.
How We Resist: Lessons from History
Timothy Snyder's "On Tyranny" provides essential guidance for defending the institutions that protect our lives and democracy.
Note that resistance is always guided by Lesson 20: Be as courageous as you can. We are not all positioned to take each of these actions, but consider what of these you can given your circumstances. Know that for every action of resistance you engage in, you are also representing those who are not able to stand up due to vulnerability, ability, or means.
Lesson 2: Defend institutions. The weather service represents exactly the kind of professional, nonpartisan institution that authoritarians target because it provides trusted information independent of political narratives.
How to resist: Contact your representatives demanding full restoration of NOAA and National Weather Service funding and staffing. Support organizations like the American Meteorological Society that advocate for professional meteorology. When officials blame weakened institutions for failures, call it out publicly—on social media, in letters to editors, at town halls.
Lesson 10: Believe in truth. They want you to believe that eliminating 600 weather professionals had nothing to do with forecast accuracy, that this was just an unfortunate natural disaster.
How to resist: Share the timeline. When people discuss the Texas tragedy, add the context about the DOGE cuts. Support independent journalism that investigates these connections. Refuse to let them separate cause from consequence.
Lesson 11: Investigate. The administration hopes we won't connect their systematic destruction of federal agencies to real-world consequences when those agencies fail during crises.
How to resist: Research which weather service offices in your area have been affected by cuts. File Freedom of Information Act requests about staffing levels and budget reductions. Ask local meteorologists how cuts have affected their operations.
Lesson 18: Be calm when the unthinkable happens. They count on disasters to overwhelm our capacity to think clearly about cause and effect.
How to resist: When the next weather disaster strikes, immediately ask: Were the warning systems fully staffed? Did they have the resources they needed to be effective? Don't let crisis be used to hide accountability for institutional destruction.
As we resist these attacks on life-saving institutions, we must especially protect vulnerable community members who depend most on early warning systems—the elderly, disabled individuals, people without cars or financial resources to evacuate quickly, and immigrant communities who may fear seeking help. Their lives depend on systems that work when disaster strikes.
Texas families trusted that the warnings would be accurate. That trust was betrayed by Trump and his officials who chose political points over public safety. We can honor the victims by ensuring it never happens again—by defending the institutions that keep all of us safe when the storms come.
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Sources
CBS News. "Tropical Storm Chantal expected to make landfall in South Carolina." July 6, 2025.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "NOAA predicts above-normal Atlantic hurricane season." May 2025.
Associated Press. "Texas flooding death toll rises to 51 as search continues." July 6, 2025.
The Texas Tribune. "Was the Hill Country sufficiently warned about Texas flooding?" July 5, 2025.
The Washington Post. "How extraordinary rainfall caught Texas by surprise." July 5, 2025.
Associated Press. "Hundreds of weather forecasters and NOAA staff fired in DOGE cuts." February 28, 2025.
CNN. "Beleaguered Weather Service defends its forecasts as Texas officials point fingers over flood warnings." July 5, 2025.
Associated Press. "Nearly half of National Weather Service offices have 20% vacancy rates, and experts say it's a risk." April 4, 2025.
ABC7 Chicago. "More tornadoes, fewer National Weather Service meteorologists after DOGE cuts make for dangerous mix." May 21, 2025.
KXAN Austin. "Federal forecast concerns surface in Texas' deadly flooding debate." July 6, 2025.
The Daily Beast. "Texas Officials Slam Donald Trump's National Weather Service for Botched Forecast." July 5, 2025.
The Daily Beast. "ICE Barbie Kristi Noem Dodges Blame for Disastrous Texas Flooding on Trump's Watch." July 5, 2025.
CBS Texas. "President Trump calls Central Texas floods a 'terrible thing' and says he's working with state and local officials." July 5, 2025.
The Daily Beast. "ICE Barbie Kristi Noem Dodges Blame for Disastrous Texas Flooding on Trump's Watch." July 5, 2025.
NPR. "Ahead of hurricane season, the National Weather Service is reeling from DOGE's cuts." May 24, 2025.
NPR. "Ahead of hurricane season, the National Weather Service is reeling from DOGE's cuts." May 24, 2025.
CBS News. "DOGE cuts to weather balloon sites leave U.S. without crucial data, some meteorologists say." May 24, 2025.
ABC7 Chicago. "More tornadoes, fewer National Weather Service meteorologists after DOGE cuts make for dangerous mix." May 21, 2025.
Texas Observer. "Trump's DOGE Cuts Are a Texas-Sized Disaster." July 3, 2025.
The Daily Beast. "ICE Barbie Kristi Noem Dodges Blame for Disastrous Texas Flooding on Trump's Watch." July 5, 2025.